Weight Loss by the Numbers: My 2014 Formula, Revisited

Back in 2014 I was on the verge of hitting 300 lb and decided it was time to change things. I mapped out a goal and the numbers I'd need to get there. Four months later I was at 245 lb: halfway to my goal.

The question I got most back then was "What's the trick?" My answer was a plan by the numbers. I wrote it up on my old blog, and reading it again now, most of it holds up. A few numbers I'd change. Here's the plan in eight steps, with notes from today.

How to read this: the 2014 numbers are my lived experience, not targets for you. The "today" ranges come from published research, linked under Sources. Your starting point is different from mine, and results aren't typical or promised.

1. Want it (for real)

This is still the most important step. It won't always be easy, and that's fine. Pick this goal because you actually want it, not because someone told you to. Everything after this is math.

2. Know your number

In 2014 I used a BMR calculator. BMR is roughly what your body burns at rest, and I treated it as my eating target. Today I'd start from maintenance: the calories that keep your weight steady with your normal day included.

Two ways to estimate it:

Quick: plug your details into the NIH's free Body Weight Planner. It's built on a research model of how weight actually changes over time (Hall et al., 2011).
Accurate: log your weight and what you eat for two weeks, then compare the weekly averages. If your weight stayed flat, what you ate is about your maintenance.

Either way it's an estimate. That part I got right in 2014.

3. Pick your pace (and how you'll pay for it)

My 2014 rule of thumb was 1 lb ≈ 3,500 calories, so losing 1 lb a week means a gap of about 500 calories a day. Then you choose how to create that gap:

Option	How	My take (then and now)
1. Diet only	eat 500 less	Hardest to stick to. You're hungry, and hungry people quit.
2. Exercise only	eat the same, burn 500 more	Works, but tiring if you're not used to that much training.
3. Balance	eat a little less, move a little more	Still my favorite. Find a way of eating you're comfortable with, and let exercise cover the rest.

What I'd change today:

The 3,500 rule is only a starting point. As you get lighter you burn less, so a fixed gap slows down over the months. The rule overestimates long-run loss, which is why the NIH planner above models it instead (Hall et al., 2011).
A gentler pace. My 2014 example was eating 1,500 when my "number" was 2,000, and my own loss was faster than I'd plan for now. A research review on dieting while lifting suggests losing about 0.5–1% of your bodyweight a week to hold on to more muscle (Helms et al., 2014). At 250 lb, that's about 1.25–2.5 lb a week.

4. Put it on a calendar

Grab a calendar and count the weeks. Ten pounds at a pound a week is about ten weeks. Write your starting weight and date, then on the same day next week, write where you should be.

You'll have good weeks and bad weeks. Up a pound one week and down three the next is still progress on the overall map. Look at the trend, not single days. In my experience the first week or two often moves faster than planned. Take the head start.

5. Break your diet

Yes, really. For this to work long-term you need to feel comfortable, not restrained. Dinner with friends, drinks, a BBQ: once a week or every other week was fine for me. It's a small bump, not a reset. As I wrote back then, constantly denying your cravings is the easiest way to lose motivation and give up.

No guilt. Plan the break, enjoy it, and get back to your normal routine at the next meal.

6. Weigh in under the same conditions

Same day, same time, same conditions. I weighed myself on Wednesday evenings right before bed. My weight could swing a couple of pounds within a single day, so daily numbers mostly measured noise, and noise is frustrating.

Today I'd add one option: if you like data, weigh in most mornings and only compare the weekly average. One weekly check-in or a weekly average both tell you the real trend.

7. Find your meal rhythm

What worked for me was eating often in small portions: roughly every 3 hours, 5 times a day. I was never stuffed, but I never had to fight hunger for long either, because the next meal was always close.

That's my preference, not a rule. A meta-analysis found that when total calories are the same, the number of meals doesn't meaningfully change fat loss, so the authors suggest picking the rhythm you can stick to (Schoenfeld et al., 2015). If you game for long stretches, plan your meals around your sessions so you're eating actual meals instead of grazing at the desk. Our no-stove gamer lunches are an easy place to start.

8. Find your guild

You can do this alone, but you don't have to. A trainer, a friend who jogs with you, family who'll cook a healthier dinner with you: any help makes it easier. Back then, ready-made portioned meals helped me on busy days. Find whatever makes the easy choice the default for you.

What I'd add today

Protein. I didn't think about it in 2014. For people who lift, a large meta-analysis found that muscle gains level off at about 1.6 g of protein per kg of bodyweight a day (about 0.7 g per lb), with some people benefiting from up to 2.2 g/kg (Morton et al., 2018). When you're eating below maintenance, the review I cited above suggests going higher (Helms et al., 2014).
Lifting. If I started over, I'd add strength training from week one, not just cardio and calories. Exercise, and resistance training in particular, helps preserve muscle while you lose weight (Cava et al., 2017). A small start counts: our desk setup guide and loading-screen reset are good first moves.

The honest part

I'm not a dietitian or a doctor, and nobody's paying me to say any of this. These are the numbers and habits that worked for me, plus updated ranges from research I've linked. If you have a health condition, talk to a professional before changing how you eat.

If food or weight feels hard to think about, you're not alone. The National Alliance for Eating Disorders runs a free helpline at 866-662-1235.

Your next move: estimate your maintenance, pick a pace, and write two dates on a calendar: today, and one week from today.

More posts like this live in The Gamer's Lifestyle.

How I wrote this: the 2014 numbers and habits are mine, from my original post. I drafted this update with an AI assistant, every "today" range links to its source, and I reviewed every line.

Sources checked

Keep building

Your next small action beats the ideal plan.

Choose another note